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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 19:35:10 GMT -5
In the late 1980's, Long Islands Newsday used to publish a running total of AIDS deaths on the banner. The people who ran that paper apparently believed at the time it was going to be an exponential pandemic, but didn't account for the obvious factor of people changing their behavior. California's numbers - assuming they can be believed - are currently coming in only a little worse than 8% ( notice that there was some sort surge in reported results on April 4th that dropped the rate off a cliff). One obvious potential factor that I hadn't mentioned previously - in addition to density and sample-size-skew - is the obvious differences in climate. The viability of a virus like covid is effected by sunlight, temperature, and humidity. I just now heard on CNN that the people doing models assumed only 50% of people would do the physical/social distancing and hand washing etc. And it turns out many more than 50% are doing the guidelines. So because of this the numbers will be better. But there are still many stupid people out there grouping together. And it only takes one "rotten apple" to cause a cluster. : ( Please bear in mind that those percentages will continue to change as the seriousness of this situation reaches people's sensibility. Though as a paramedic pointed out today 'you'll never get 100% of the people to do what is being asked'. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 20:42:08 GMT -5
I actually checked it, It doesnt work that way. Only when I change the ip , guest count increases. We're talking about the view count on a thread, not the guest count. Ah okay, it's my mistake. |
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 7, 2020 21:21:56 GMT -5
I just now heard on CNN that the people doing models assumed only 50% of people would do the physical/social distancing and hand washing etc. And it turns out many more than 50% are doing the guidelines. So because of this the numbers will be better. But there are still many stupid people out there grouping together. And it only takes one "rotten apple" to cause a cluster. : ( Please bear in mind that those percentages will continue to change as the seriousness of this situation reaches people's sensibility. Though as a paramedic pointed out today 'you'll never get 100% of the people to do what is being asked'. Yes. This whole mess has only begun to *normalize* for me. (I don't know quite how to say what I want to say). Every time I have thought of the situation it seemed unreal, like a nightmare. And then I think, no, this is real, this is crazy. So *normalize* means...the shock of the crisis is easing off. It's very weird. But I think you are right, for some people, they don't yet realize how serious things are (hospitals full, bodies piling up). Denial I guess is the word. I don't think the stupid people realize that their actions (or lack thereof) are mostly for the purpose of protecting others. They may think, 99% chance I will be OK, essentially **c* everybody else. I don't know anybody in my immediate circle who has it, but I have an internet friend, friend for many years, who has tested positive.  |
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Post by laughter on Apr 7, 2020 22:22:30 GMT -5
Maybe's it's changed then, that's the way it used to work. If I get interested enough I'll experiment and let ya' know. I checked it. When I logged in from the same IP, Its doesn't increment the count. Try clearing your cache, deleting all cookies (if you allow them in the first place), and then waiting one, then (after repeating the clearing) two, then three hours, and see what happens. |
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Post by laughter on Apr 7, 2020 22:24:06 GMT -5
Good news... a lot of death estimates are coming down. I've seen some for under 100,000 by August (in the USA). Not sure what happens if we go back to normal again, but at least we seem to have a way to control by brute force/quarantine if necessary. ... obviously too early to celebrate yet... Yeah, if the doomsayers turn out to be wrong it would be all good, and no reason to pillory them for just doing their jobs.  |
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Post by laughter on Apr 7, 2020 22:31:01 GMT -5
In the late 1980's, Long Islands Newsday used to publish a running total of AIDS deaths on the banner. The people who ran that paper apparently believed at the time it was going to be an exponential pandemic, but didn't account for the obvious factor of people changing their behavior. California's numbers - assuming they can be believed - are currently coming in only a little worse than 8% ( notice that there was some sort surge in reported results on April 4th that dropped the rate off a cliff). One obvious potential factor that I hadn't mentioned previously - in addition to density and sample-size-skew - is the obvious differences in climate. The viability of a virus like covid is effected by sunlight, temperature, and humidity. I just now heard on CNN that the people doing models assumed only 50% of people would do the physical/social distancing and hand washing etc. And it turns out many more than 50% are doing the guidelines. So because of this the numbers will be better. But there are still many stupid people out there grouping together. And it only takes one "rotten apple" to cause a cluster. : ( The death counts Cuomo has reported over the last few days are well over the 425/day on average from all causes for NYS in 2017, so obviously this is a serious impact. The data on hospitalization has been trending to a leveling off for about a week now, but there is of course uncertainty. Hopefully the worst of the predictions in terms of the icu beds and ventilators won't prove right. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 22:56:19 GMT -5
I checked it. When I logged in from the same IP, Its doesn't increment the count. Try clearing your cache, deleting all cookies (if you allow them in the first place), and then waiting one, then (after repeating the clearing) two, then three hours, and see what happens. ok, I understand what you are saying. |
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 8, 2020 6:28:18 GMT -5
I just now heard on CNN that the people doing models assumed only 50% of people would do the physical/social distancing and hand washing etc. And it turns out many more than 50% are doing the guidelines. So because of this the numbers will be better. But there are still many stupid people out there grouping together. And it only takes one "rotten apple" to cause a cluster. : ( The death counts Cuomo has reported over the last few days are well over the 425/day on average from all causes for NYS in 2017, so obviously this is a serious impact. The data on hospitalization has been trending to a leveling off for about a week now, but there is of course uncertainty. Hopefully the worst of the predictions in terms of the icu beds and ventilators won't prove right. I just heard on CNN that the modelers have lowered their prediction for the death rate for the US. Now saying by August, 60,000 deaths. But there will still be stupid clusters here and there. Stupid pastors having church services, for example. I cringe to see these interviews (God wants us to have services, etc.). And I just hope President Trump doesn't try to open things up too early. (If he tries I hope people will not listen to him). |
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Post by zendancer on Apr 8, 2020 8:13:28 GMT -5
I just now heard on CNN that the people doing models assumed only 50% of people would do the physical/social distancing and hand washing etc. And it turns out many more than 50% are doing the guidelines. So because of this the numbers will be better. But there are still many stupid people out there grouping together. And it only takes one "rotten apple" to cause a cluster. : ( The death counts Cuomo has reported over the last few days are well over the 425/day on average from all causes for NYS in 2017, so obviously this is a serious impact. The data on hospitalization has been trending to a leveling off for about a week now, but there is of course uncertainty. Hopefully the worst of the predictions in terms of the icu beds and ventilators won't prove right. I'm just curious but does that mean that there are 425 deaths from other causes each day plus the additional Covid deaths? |
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Post by zendancer on Apr 8, 2020 8:24:20 GMT -5
I've been fascinated by the number of adults who are isolating themselves and being extremely cautious EXCEPT for their extended families-- and particularly children and grandchildren who have wide interaction with others. They seem to think that they can catch the bug from strangers but not from family members, many of whom go to work and are around other people regularly. It's a rather strange phenomenon exhibited by people who are otherwise highly intelligent.
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Post by Reefs on Apr 8, 2020 10:35:53 GMT -5
From The Telegraph: There you go. GIGO all the way. You can calculate the actual numbers yourself. ===================== Here's an interesting site for you data hungry guys: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/You can click on a country and get all kinds of country specific statistics and even demographics. Yes, this report as covid-infected-at-death vs. covid-cause-of-death has been one of my persistent points of skepticism. We'd have a much clearer picture if the number of total deaths from all causes were reported alongside the one's described as covid. The average number of deaths per day in the U.S. during 2018 was 7778. It's a potential apples and oranges situation if we don't know how they count. I wasn't sure how they count in the US. But as Dr. Birx confirmed yesterday, they count the same way in the US as they do in Italy: |
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Post by zendancer on Apr 8, 2020 12:18:59 GMT -5
Yes, this report as covid-infected-at-death vs. covid-cause-of-death has been one of my persistent points of skepticism. We'd have a much clearer picture if the number of total deaths from all causes were reported alongside the one's described as covid. The average number of deaths per day in the U.S. during 2018 was 7778. It's a potential apples and oranges situation if we don't know how they count. I wasn't sure how they count in the US. But as Dr. Birx confirmed yesterday, they count the same way in the US as they do in Italy: That's interesting because one report claimed that Italy used a much more haphazard approach to the way deaths were coded. Birx at least answered one of the questions that I had been wondering about when she said that if someone comes to the hospital because of the virus and dies, the USA is counting that as a Covid-related death. I guess the big question that won't be answered until we have much wider testing coupled with anti-body testing is how many people may be asymptomatic but either be spreading the virus or already have recovered from the virus without knowing it. |
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Post by laughter on Apr 8, 2020 14:27:11 GMT -5
The death counts Cuomo has reported over the last few days are well over the 425/day on average from all causes for NYS in 2017, so obviously this is a serious impact. The data on hospitalization has been trending to a leveling off for about a week now, but there is of course uncertainty. Hopefully the worst of the predictions in terms of the icu beds and ventilators won't prove right. I'm just curious but does that mean that there are 425 deaths from other causes each day plus the additional Covid deaths? No, that 425 is just dividing the total number of NYS deaths in 2017 (155,191) by 365, so since the reported covid deaths the other day were over 700, obviously this event is quite significant, regardless of the specifics of determining cause of death. There have been criticisms (which I find valid) of the covid total because (as per Birx), any death with covid is being counted as by covid. This has apparently led to a distortion, for example, in the suppression of the number of deaths by pneumonia. It's why I've been curious as to the total number of deaths per day of all causes. I doubt that the authorities are inflating the actual number of dead bodies, so, I'm even more convinced, at this point, of the significance of this event.
On a different, but related topic, I was curious as to why high blood pressure, in particular, would be a greater risk factor of severe covid symptoms. Why and how would hypertension, in particular, relate to a respiratory disease? Someone mentioned to me yesterday that there's apparently a study out of Europe that suggests the chemistry and physics of ace inhibitor's exacerbates the effects of the virus.
So, it seems (if this is true), rather than advising Americans who take ace inhibitors of the risk, our authorities have instead bundled this information in terms of describing the populations who are at risk. This is reprehensible. Misinforming people of the benefits of a mask to stop a run on them was one thing, this, is quite another.
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Post by laughter on Apr 8, 2020 14:48:07 GMT -5
Try clearing your cache, deleting all cookies (if you allow them in the first place), and then waiting one, then (after repeating the clearing) two, then three hours, and see what happens. ok, I understand what you are saying. (** smirks and kisses left bicep **)  |
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Post by laughter on Apr 8, 2020 16:30:48 GMT -5
I've been fascinated by the number of adults who are isolating themselves and being extremely cautious EXCEPT for their extended families-- and particularly children and grandchildren who have wide interaction with others. They seem to think that they can catch the bug from strangers but not from family members, many of whom go to work and are around other people regularly. It's a rather strange phenomenon exhibited by people who are otherwise highly intelligent.  |
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