|
|
Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 5, 2020 21:51:07 GMT -5
I'm not so sure about the number of guests. I think if you are here (member) but not logged in you are counted as a guest. I think I have noted this previously (think means not 100% positive). Maybe Reefs or Peter can comment on this. In my own life in the past, I've found crisis intensifies the search. Things get put in perspective. One has to decide what's most important in their life, maybe only ONE thing is really important. Crisis brings focus. But then, down the road, outer crisis is not really crisis, just a little bump in the road. So you are absolutely right. Maybe you would want to start a thread: If you are new and have stumbled upon this site, in this time of crisis, here's what ST's is about... The over counting is probably worse than that because the same visitor might be counted multiple times depending on the way proboards is tracking us and how we have our browser's configured. I've experimented with it (years ago) and as I recalled at the time, sometimes they mult-count me, other times they don't. Also, the view counts on the threads aren't unique viewers, they get incremented every time any page in the thread is clicked. Yep. |
|
|
|
Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 5, 2020 21:52:25 GMT -5
heh heh .. a government-issued license to socialize? ..  Dude, I'm sure you've drug tested about a hundred times knowing your history.🤪 : ) |
|
|
|
Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 5, 2020 21:55:50 GMT -5
That's not how it works for me. I can reload a page and drive up the view count. One time, in band camp, the 'pilgrim started writing about how interested people were in one of his threads because of the view count so Question wrote a robot to drive-up various counts way out of proportion to the others.  [/quote Yea...I remember that, have kept my mouth zipped since then...... |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 9:54:04 GMT -5
This is a very useful website. CovidActNow Pueyo is one of the contributors so skeptics beware. |
|
|
|
Post by Reefs on Apr 6, 2020 12:47:31 GMT -5
Yeah, Kevin's delivery of that line was quite memorable. It's certainly worth mentioning that "Machiavellian" is, of course, a conceptual overylay on top of events, which comes along for the ride once the concept of social interaction is the context of the dialog. Finally got around to watching the soldier's interview, that was some strong stuff. Might write more in reply another time.  That soldier literally fell out of the simulation. But I think he did a good job putting the pieces together after a while. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 15:04:24 GMT -5
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 18:04:43 GMT -5
Nope, It only increments when uniq ip encounters. That's not how it works for me. I can reload a page and drive up the view count. You are correct, robertk, just boosted reefs' loserthink from 175 views to 191. Us losers got to stick together. |
|
|
|
Post by Peter on Apr 7, 2020 5:56:36 GMT -5
Finally got around to watching the soldier's interview, that was some strong stuff. Sorry, missed this at the time and can't find it by searching for the word 'soldier'. Could someone post a link plz? Ta! |
|
|
|
Post by laughter on Apr 7, 2020 10:24:20 GMT -5
Finally got around to watching the soldier's interview, that was some strong stuff. Sorry, missed this at the time and can't find it by searching for the word 'soldier'. Could someone post a link plz? Ta! No worries Pete, happy to track it down. |
|
|
|
Post by laughter on Apr 7, 2020 11:15:05 GMT -5
I'd agree that there's a sort of sense of denial for alot of people as this is happening. The Hannaford chain installed a plastic shield for their check-out clerks, as did the Lowe's here. But the folks at the local places - who I have a good rapport with - they looked at me like I was a Martian wearing that mask.  So I can see why there's an emphasis on the threat by the experts, even if it (hopefully) turns out to be an over-emphasis. Time will tell the tale of the tape in the numbers. I've been running some numbers on facebook. Using actual numbers of confirmed cases I arrived at 112,000 deaths by May 20, in the US. This using doubling cases every six days, with deaths following in two weeks. This was done March 31 1:12 PM. And this using a conservative 1% of cases resulting in death. Explained more fully in the post. Last night (20 hours ago) I decided to take the actual number of deaths and work backwards two weeks to get a guess at the actual number of cases versus the number of positive tests. (Basically, I came up with approximately double the verified positive cases). And then I took that number and projected two weeks ahead to get the number of deaths (because if you have Coronavirus you basically are either dead or over it in two weeks). Explained more fully in the post. Doing this I arrived at 172,224 deaths by May 2 in the US. I worked out the deaths for two more weeks, but didn't post it as it got very ugly by then. This is only based on doubling every six days and a 1% death rate (yes, that's a guess at this point, but I'd say conservative guess). Doing this I came up with 10,764 deaths by Monday April 6. We seem to be on track for this. A different set of math, the first paragraph above, I also projected on March 31, 350,000 confirmed cases by Monday April 6. We are also on track to reach this, probably before Monday. The USA is basically screwed. "Stupid is as stupid does". F,FG No matter what we do here we are always two weeks behind. ("You have to skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it is". Wayne Gretsky) www.facebook.com/darrell.connell.14In the late 1980's, Long Islands Newsday used to publish a running total of AIDS deaths on the banner. The people who ran that paper apparently believed at the time it was going to be an exponential pandemic, but didn't account for the obvious factor of people changing their behavior. California's numbers - assuming they can be believed - are currently coming in only a little worse than 8% ( notice that there was some sort surge in reported results on April 4th that dropped the rate off a cliff). One obvious potential factor that I hadn't mentioned previously - in addition to density and sample-size-skew - is the obvious differences in climate. The viability of a virus like covid is effected by sunlight, temperature, and humidity. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 14:32:15 GMT -5
Nope, It only increments when uniq ip encounters. Maybe's it's changed then, that's the way it used to work. If I get interested enough I'll experiment and let ya' know. I checked it. When I logged in from the same IP, Its doesn't increment the count. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 14:33:24 GMT -5
Nope, It only increments when uniq ip encounters. That's not how it works for me. I can reload a page and drive up the view count. I actually checked it, It doesnt work that way. Only when I change the ip , guest count increases. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 15:51:36 GMT -5
That's not how it works for me. I can reload a page and drive up the view count. I actually checked it, It doesnt work that way. Only when I change the ip , guest count increases. We're talking about the view count on a thread, not the guest count. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 15:54:44 GMT -5
Good news... a lot of death estimates are coming down. I've seen some for under 100,000 by August (in the USA). Not sure what happens if we go back to normal again, but at least we seem to have a way to control by brute force/quarantine if necessary.
... obviously too early to celebrate yet...
|
|
|
|
Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 7, 2020 19:10:07 GMT -5
I've been running some numbers on facebook. Using actual numbers of confirmed cases I arrived at 112,000 deaths by May 20, in the US. This using doubling cases every six days, with deaths following in two weeks. This was done March 31 1:12 PM. And this using a conservative 1% of cases resulting in death. Explained more fully in the post. Last night (20 hours ago) I decided to take the actual number of deaths and work backwards two weeks to get a guess at the actual number of cases versus the number of positive tests. (Basically, I came up with approximately double the verified positive cases). And then I took that number and projected two weeks ahead to get the number of deaths (because if you have Coronavirus you basically are either dead or over it in two weeks). Explained more fully in the post. Doing this I arrived at 172,224 deaths by May 2 in the US. I worked out the deaths for two more weeks, but didn't post it as it got very ugly by then. This is only based on doubling every six days and a 1% death rate (yes, that's a guess at this point, but I'd say conservative guess). Doing this I came up with 10,764 deaths by Monday April 6. We seem to be on track for this. A different set of math, the first paragraph above, I also projected on March 31, 350,000 confirmed cases by Monday April 6. We are also on track to reach this, probably before Monday. The USA is basically screwed. "Stupid is as stupid does". F,FG No matter what we do here we are always two weeks behind. ("You have to skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it is". Wayne Gretsky) www.facebook.com/darrell.connell.14In the late 1980's, Long Islands Newsday used to publish a running total of AIDS deaths on the banner. The people who ran that paper apparently believed at the time it was going to be an exponential pandemic, but didn't account for the obvious factor of people changing their behavior. California's numbers - assuming they can be believed - are currently coming in only a little worse than 8% ( notice that there was some sort surge in reported results on April 4th that dropped the rate off a cliff). One obvious potential factor that I hadn't mentioned previously - in addition to density and sample-size-skew - is the obvious differences in climate. The viability of a virus like covid is effected by sunlight, temperature, and humidity. I just now heard on CNN that the people doing models assumed only 50% of people would do the physical/social distancing and hand washing etc. And it turns out many more than 50% are doing the guidelines. So because of this the numbers will be better. But there are still many stupid people out there grouping together. And it only takes one "rotten apple" to cause a cluster. : ( |
|
[/quote
So I can see why there's an emphasis on the threat by the experts, even if it (hopefully) turns out to be an over-emphasis. Time will tell the tale of the tape in the numbers.