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Post by zendancer on Apr 4, 2020 11:33:12 GMT -5
There's no doom and gloom here. I just look at what's happening, and warn people if warning seems appropriate. If you see a guy wearing headphones sitting on a railroad track with his back turned away from an approaching train, the most considerate thing you can do is make him aware of the oncoming train. It has nothing to do with either optimism or pessimism. I'm having fun every day working on a construction project, alone, and hiking in the woods enjoying the redbud trees, mayapples, trilliums, and all of the wild animals I get to see. What's not to like?  His questions are pretty valid. I have the same questions in my mind while I was reading your post . Your writing shows me that you are scared of the ongoing situation. Getting out of one's head helps one to see more clearly. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2020 11:57:02 GMT -5
I love the Chinese character for the word crisis. It contains two sub-characters; danger and opportunity. You have your nose in the data alright, but you recently told me you were a big picture guy who sees things from 30,000 ft. Why then all the pessimism, doom, and gloom in your posts of late? Do you not also see the great potential for awakening THIS has unleashed on an otherwise sleeping world? Isn't that cause for at least some optimism too? There's no doom and gloom here. I just look at what's happening, and warn people if warning seems appropriate. If you see a guy wearing headphones sitting on a railroad track with his back turned away from an approaching train, the most considerate thing you can do is make him aware of the oncoming train. It has nothing to do with either optimism or pessimism. I'm having fun every day working on a construction project, alone, and hiking in the woods enjoying the redbud trees, mayapples, trilliums, and all of the wild animals I get to see. What's not to like? Yes. There's room for everything in the moment, sadness, horror, joy, love. I think of the poor folk drowning in their own fluids, alone. It must be painful and devastating for their loved ones or the folks who have no income, the angst and dread they must feel. To insulate yourself in this is to build walls so thick, you'll be locked in for a long time. Insulation just feeds the little self. I say that with all the kindness and love this meager ego can muster, a master insulationer. |
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Post by justlikeyou on Apr 4, 2020 12:03:34 GMT -5
I love the Chinese character for the word crisis. It contains two sub-characters; danger and opportunity. You have your nose in the data alright, but you recently told me you were a big picture guy who sees things from 30,000 ft. Why then all the pessimism, doom, and gloom in your posts of late? Do you not also see the great potential for awakening THIS has unleashed on an otherwise sleeping world? Isn't that cause for at least some optimism too?There's no doom and gloom here. I just look at what's happening, and warn people if warning seems appropriate. If you see a guy wearing headphones sitting on a railroad track with his back turned away from an approaching train, the most considerate thing you can do is make him aware of the oncoming train. It has nothing to do with either optimism or pessimism. I'm having fun every day working on a construction project, alone, and hiking in the woods enjoying the redbud trees, mayapples, trilliums, and all of the wild animals I get to see. What's not to like? The bolded above was what I was really interested to know. |
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 4, 2020 12:06:06 GMT -5
There's no doom and gloom here. I just look at what's happening, and warn people if warning seems appropriate. If you see a guy wearing headphones sitting on a railroad track with his back turned away from an approaching train, the most considerate thing you can do is make him aware of the oncoming train. It has nothing to do with either optimism or pessimism. I'm having fun every day working on a construction project, alone, and hiking in the woods enjoying the redbud trees, mayapples, trilliums, and all of the wild animals I get to see. What's not to like? His questions are pretty valid. I have the same questions in my mind while I was reading your post . Your writing shows me that you are scared of the ongoing situation. He's not scared. |
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Post by zendancer on Apr 4, 2020 12:29:26 GMT -5
There's no doom and gloom here. I just look at what's happening, and warn people if warning seems appropriate. If you see a guy wearing headphones sitting on a railroad track with his back turned away from an approaching train, the most considerate thing you can do is make him aware of the oncoming train. It has nothing to do with either optimism or pessimism. I'm having fun every day working on a construction project, alone, and hiking in the woods enjoying the redbud trees, mayapples, trilliums, and all of the wild animals I get to see. What's not to like? The bolded above was what I was really interested to know. This could go either way, and its impossible to predict. It may be intellectually fun to imagine various ways that this pandemic will play out, but there are no guarantees. All that we can say is, "Wait and see." There are just as many reasons to think that people will remain asleep as there are to think that people will wake up (with or without the pandemic). |
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Post by zendancer on Apr 4, 2020 12:41:47 GMT -5
His questions are pretty valid. I have the same questions in my mind while I was reading your post . Your writing shows me that you are scared of the ongoing situation. He's not scared. That's for sure. I simply think its unfortunate that so many people will probably die because of a failure to understand the nature of the virus and the simple ways to either contain it or mitigate it. Handled correctly, the economy can continue to function and a recession/depression can be avoided. Handled incorrectly.....well, that's becoming pretty obvious. |
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Post by justlikeyou on Apr 4, 2020 12:43:44 GMT -5
The bolded above was what I was really interested to know. This could go either way, and its impossible to predict. It may be intellectually fun to imagine various ways that this pandemic will play out, but there are no guarantees. All that we can say is, "Wait and see." There are just as many reasons to think that people will remain asleep as there are to think that people will wake up (with or without the pandemic). I'm not talking about the future. I'm talking about right now. Jesus said the fields are ripe for harvest all the time. Times like these make it even more so, what with all the mental anguish, fear and uncertainty peeps are experiencing now, making them particularly ripe, and they need to the hear good news that peace and freedom from mind is possible. You'd think on a Spiritual forum such this one you would hear more about that. That's all I getting at. |
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 4, 2020 12:46:15 GMT -5
This could go either way, and its impossible to predict. It may be intellectually fun to imagine various ways that this pandemic will play out, but there are no guarantees. All that we can say is, "Wait and see." There are just as many reasons to think that people will remain asleep as there are to think that people will wake up (with or without the pandemic). I'm not talking about the future. I'm talking about right now. Jesus said the fields are ripe for harvest all the time. Times like these make it even more so, what with all the mental anguish, fear and uncertainty peeps are experiencing now, making them particularly ripe, and they need to the hear good news that peace and freedom from mind is possible. You'd think on a Spiritual forum such this one you would hear more about that. That's all I getting at. You just opened a door for someone. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2020 13:38:54 GMT -5
The country that's probably done the best job of containing the virus is South Korea, and they haven't had to shut down the economy. How have they done it? The government acted fast, instituted widespread testing, did extensive contact tracing, and much more. The only businesses that were shut down were specific businesses where someone tested positive. The businesses were closed for two weeks, disinfected, and then allowed to reopen. The death rate there has been negligible compared to most other countries, and they had a huge influx of people who arrived from Wuhan, and a huge spike in cases, initially. SK just proves what fast action and a coordinated strategy can do in such a pandemic. Intelligent leadership is key.It can't be underestimated how much was learnt by the SARS outbreak in 2003 and the MERS outbreak in 2015. www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down?t=1586025253107"Another thing that links Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea is that they've all had bad coronavirus outbreaks in the past. Hong Kong and Singapore were hit hard by SARS in 2003, and South Korea came to a standstill during a MERS outbreak in 2015. Their experiences with these past outbreaks may have made officials more aggressive in responding to COVID-19 and possibly made residents more willing to accept intrusive measures to contain the virus." Edit: Please note that the numbers on this article are now over a week, out of date. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2020 13:42:28 GMT -5
The Washington Post has a story estimating the Chinese death toll in Wuhan to be above 40,000, way above the official number. They've been running cremation furnaces non-stop. I doubt whether the true numbers will ever leave the offices of Beijing. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2020 14:03:42 GMT -5
From The Telegraph: There you go. GIGO all the way. You can calculate the actual numbers yourself. ===================== Here's an interesting site for you data hungry guys: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/You can click on a country and get all kinds of country specific statistics and even demographics. Although the worldometers site is a constantly updated source of data. It's co-morbidity data is relatively out of date. This page reveals that although there was only 0.9% of the then deaths that had no pre-existing conditions. This table hasn't been updated for 5 weeks. |
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Post by laughter on Apr 4, 2020 16:12:02 GMT -5
In a news article this morning Andrew Romano claimed that California was one full week ahead of NY and that California and Washington appear to have bent the curve downwards as a result. 8% of people are testing positive in LA but 35% in NY. The same trend has been seen in other countries where social distancing was instituted early. This one, ok, well, Cuomo issued his stay at home order on March 20, Newssom on March 19. The furthest back you can go for any official orders in Cali (as per Romano), is March 16th, so that's 4 days, not 2, but it also was specific to SF, and not statewide. Birx's statement that California and Washington started two weeks earlier isn't supported by any specifics. Remember that Cuomo established the New Rochelle containment zone on March 10 and has been tweeting about social distancing and holding briefings on covid since around that time. On the other hand Birx said nothing (that I know of) about two other factors that I suspect are more likely reasons for the disparity: (1) As of today, NYS has recorded test results for 270k people (about 1% of the population) while Cali has only recorded tests for 35k (.08% of the population). True that the rate of positives is higher in NY, but that might be due as much to the more widespread availability of the tests (and an accelerated rate of testing further along the local curve) as it is to the 2nd factor: (2) The difference in density between the NYC metro area and LA/SF/Seattle and SD. Also, note that there is a glaring discrepancy between the data linked to above and Romano quoting Birx as stating the Cali positive test rate at 8%. It's 38% in NY, and 30% in Cali, not 8% in Cali. |
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Post by laughter on Apr 4, 2020 16:32:03 GMT -5
From The Telegraph: There you go. GIGO all the way. You can calculate the actual numbers yourself. ===================== Here's an interesting site for you data hungry guys: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/You can click on a country and get all kinds of country specific statistics and even demographics. Yes, this report as covid-infected-at-death vs. covid-cause-of-death has been one of my persistent points of skepticism. We'd have a much clearer picture if the number of total deaths from all causes were reported alongside the one's described as covid. The average number of deaths per day in the U.S. during 2018 was 7778. |
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Post by laughter on Apr 4, 2020 16:40:56 GMT -5
From The Telegraph: There you go. GIGO all the way. You can calculate the actual numbers yourself. ===================== Here's an interesting site for you data hungry guys: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/You can click on a country and get all kinds of country specific statistics and even demographics. Although the worldometers site is a constantly updated source of data. It's co-morbidity data is relatively out of date. This page reveals that although there was only 0.9% of the then deaths that had no pre-existing conditions. This table hasn't been updated for 5 weeks. a rather numbers-dense and very recent, authoritative report on the issue. Haven't digested it completely yet (and still might not ). |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2020 17:02:26 GMT -5
Although the worldometers site is a constantly updated source of data. It's co-morbidity data is relatively out of date. This page reveals that although there was only 0.9% of the then deaths that had no pre-existing conditions. This table hasn't been updated for 5 weeks. a rather numbers-dense and very recent, authoritative report on the issue. Haven't digested it completely yet (and still might not ). Yeah, there's a lot in there aye?  In the UK, we were able to advise people that had known underlying health conditions to lockdown for 12 weeks from the 23rd of March. digital.nhs.uk/coronavirus/shielded-patient-list The death numbers are on the rise here quite substantially now. And those that were personally asked to lockdown have a feeling of relief about them now. The reported deaths that are cutting the deepest are those under 10 and NHS staff. |
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