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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2020 5:35:49 GMT -5
Even one day is important when the spread is exponential. Aside from that, we still have states that have not instituted any form of lockdown, and even in states that have asked people to stay home, churches are exempt, and people are still not abiding by the extremely-lenient rules. Today the local Lowes store was packed at 1PM according to a friend who went there. As I drove to a construction site (where I'm working alone) I saw numerous groups of people, and particularly young people, interacting as if nothing has changed. People in the USA are highly independent, and it now seems obvious that the 100K-200K death rate projection by Fauci and Birx will probably be wildly optimistic in retrospect. JMHO. I'd agree that there's a sort of sense of denial for alot of people as this is happening. The Hannaford chain installed a plastic shield for their check-out clerks, as did the Lowe's here. But the folks at the local places - who I have a good rapport with - they looked at me like I was a Martian wearing that mask.  So I can see why there's an emphasis on the threat by the experts, even if it (hopefully) turns out to be an over-emphasis. Time will tell the tale of the tape in the numbers. I takes on average 5-10 days for them to normalise it.  |
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 4, 2020 6:46:23 GMT -5
Yesterday I saw a story on satellite pictures showing less air pollution in US. Don't just trust those reports. About a month ago, I've read reports that China air pollution was almost gone when in fact it wasn't, it was still in the red as usual. But it did fit a certain narrative at the time. Now, the US is usually mostly in the green anyway. So you've got to always check for yourself. Here's a good website (also comes as an app for your phone): www.iqair.com/earth?navThanks. |
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Post by zendancer on Apr 4, 2020 7:10:51 GMT -5
I'd agree that there's a sort of sense of denial for alot of people as this is happening. The Hannaford chain installed a plastic shield for their check-out clerks, as did the Lowe's here. But the folks at the local places - who I have a good rapport with - they looked at me like I was a Martian wearing that mask. So I can see why there's an emphasis on the threat by the experts, even if it (hopefully) turns out to be an over-emphasis. Time will tell the tale of the tape in the numbers. I've been running some numbers on facebook. Using actual numbers of confirmed cases I arrived at 112,000 deaths by May 20, in the US. This using doubling cases every six days, with deaths following in two weeks. This was done March 31 1:12 PM. And this using a conservative 1% of cases resulting in death. Explained more fully in the post. Last night (20 hours ago) I decided to take the actual number of deaths and work backwards two weeks to get a guess at the actual number of cases versus the number of positive tests. (Basically, I came up with approximately double the verified positive cases). And then I took that number and projected two weeks ahead to get the number of deaths (because if you have Coronavirus you basically are either dead or over it in two weeks). Explained more fully in the post. Doing this I arrived at 172,224 deaths by May 2 in the US. I worked out the deaths for two more weeks, but didn't post it as it got very ugly by then. This is only based on doubling every six days and a 1% death rate (yes, that's a guess at this point, but I'd say conservative guess). Doing this I came up with 10,764 deaths by Monday April 6. We seem to be on track for this. A different set of math, the first paragraph above, I also projected on March 31, 350,000 confirmed cases by Monday April 6. We are also on track to reach this, probably before Monday. The USA is basically screwed. "Stupid is as stupid does". F,FG No matter what we do here we are always two weeks behind. ("You have to skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it is". Wayne Gretsky) www.facebook.com/darrell.connell.14Your numbers are probably conservative. This morning an ER doc stated that in Minnesota no one can get tested for the virus even if they have all the symptoms unless they are going to be admitted to the hospital. He said that they've been sending home dozens of people who almost certainly have the virus, but none of those numbers are showing up in the positive test cohort. He said many of those people will probably die because of a lack of insurance and the fear that a return to the hospital for admission might result in bankruptcy. The lack of testing is mind boggling. The southern states have populations with the worst health in the country, so when the virus spreads there, the death rate will rise much faster. All of this has been foreseen by epidemiologists for at least the last decade, and numerous books have explained why the world should have prepared for it, but all such warnings were pretty much ignored. To get a sense of why this was so predictable, "Deadliest Enemy, Our War Against Killer Germs," is a good primer. |
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Post by zendancer on Apr 4, 2020 7:30:18 GMT -5
Agreed, and also Defasio was slow to implement restrictions whereas Calif was fairly fast by comparison. By two days. In a news article this morning Andrew Romano claimed that California was one full week ahead of NY and that California and Washington appear to have bent the curve downwards as a result. 8% of people are testing positive in LA but 35% in NY. The same trend has been seen in other countries where social distancing was instituted early. |
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Post by zendancer on Apr 4, 2020 7:41:12 GMT -5
The country that's probably done the best job of containing the virus is South Korea, and they haven't had to shut down the economy. How have they done it? The government acted fast, instituted widespread testing, did extensive contact tracing, and much more. The only businesses that were shut down were specific businesses where someone tested positive. The businesses were closed for two weeks, disinfected, and then allowed to reopen. The death rate there has been negligible compared to most other countries, and they had a huge influx of people who arrived from Wuhan, and a huge spike in cases, initially. SK just proves what fast action and a coordinated strategy can do in such a pandemic. Intelligent leadership is key.
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Post by Reefs on Apr 4, 2020 8:24:02 GMT -5
From The Telegraph: There you go. GIGO all the way. You can calculate the actual numbers yourself. ===================== Here's an interesting site for you data hungry guys: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/You can click on a country and get all kinds of country specific statistics and even demographics. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2020 8:24:20 GMT -5
The Washington Post has a story estimating the Chinese death toll in Wuhan to be above 40,000, way above the official number. They've been running cremation furnaces non-stop.
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 4, 2020 9:23:29 GMT -5
, because of the ignorance and stupidity I've been running some numbers on facebook. Using actual numbers of confirmed cases I arrived at 112,000 deaths by May 20, in the US. This using doubling cases every six days, with deaths following in two weeks. This was done March 31 1:12 PM. And this using a conservative 1% of cases resulting in death. Explained more fully in the post. Last night (20 hours ago) I decided to take the actual number of deaths and work backwards two weeks to get a guess at the actual number of cases versus the number of positive tests. (Basically, I came up with approximately double the verified positive cases). And then I took that number and projected two weeks ahead to get the number of deaths (because if you have Coronavirus you basically are either dead or over it in two weeks). Explained more fully in the post. Doing this I arrived at 172,224 deaths by May 2 in the US. I worked out the deaths for two more weeks, but didn't post it as it got very ugly by then. This is only based on doubling every six days and a 1% death rate (yes, that's a guess at this point, but I'd say conservative guess). Doing this I came up with 10,764 deaths by Monday April 6. We seem to be on track for this. A different set of math, the first paragraph above, I also projected on March 31, 350,000 confirmed cases by Monday April 6. We are also on track to reach this, probably before Monday. The USA is basically screwed. "Stupid is as stupid does". F,FG No matter what we do here we are always two weeks behind. ("You have to skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it is". Wayne Gretsky) www.facebook.com/darrell.connell.14Your numbers are probably conservative. This morning an ER doc stated that in Minnesota no one can get tested for the virus even if they have all the symptoms unless they are going to be admitted to the hospital. He said that they've been sending home dozens of people who almost certainly have the virus, but none of those numbers are showing up in the positive test cohort. He said many of those people will probably die because of a lack of insurance and the fear that a return to the hospital for admission might result in bankruptcy. The lack of testing is mind boggling. The southern states have populations with the worst health in the country, so when the virus spreads there, the death rate will rise much faster. All of this has been foreseen by epidemiologists for at least the last decade, and numerous books have explained why the world should have prepared for it, but all such warnings were pretty much ignored. To get a sense of why this was so predictable, "Deadliest Enemy, Our War Against Killer Germs," is a good primer. I don't know why the experts don't give more of their model numbers. They mostly merely keep saying, we're going to have a bad two weeks ahead. I will give what I came up with for the two weeks following what's above. By May 8, 344,448 deaths in the US. By May 15, 688,896 deaths in the US. This is just exponential math, with just a couple of variables. I "hope" these figures are wrong. But then it gets worse because we overwhelm the healthcare system. Thanks for the book recommendation. I found the two articles you gave early, posted them on my facebook, they can be found down my fb ?history? I read in full both. The sad thing is that if people finally do get it, we are then automatically at that point still two weeks behind. I think Dr. Birx was close to tears the other day, Thursday I think it was, for the ignorance and stupidity of people. |
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Post by justlikeyou on Apr 4, 2020 9:31:48 GMT -5
The country that's probably done the best job of containing the virus is South Korea, and they haven't had to shut down the economy. How have they done it? The government acted fast, instituted widespread testing, did extensive contact tracing, and much more. The only businesses that were shut down were specific businesses where someone tested positive. The businesses were closed for two weeks, disinfected, and then allowed to reopen. The death rate there has been negligible compared to most other countries, and they had a huge influx of people who arrived from Wuhan, and a huge spike in cases, initially. SK just proves what fast action and a coordinated strategy can do in such a pandemic. Intelligent leadership is key. I love the Chinese character for the word crisis. It contains two sub-characters; danger and opportunity. You have your nose in the data alright, but you recently told me you were a big picture guy who sees things from 30,000 ft. Why then all the pessimism, doom, and gloom in your posts of late? Do you not also see the great potential for awakening THIS has unleashed on an otherwise sleeping world? Isn't that cause for at least some optimism too? |
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 4, 2020 9:33:43 GMT -5
The country that's probably done the best job of containing the virus is South Korea, and they haven't had to shut down the economy. How have they done it? The government acted fast, instituted widespread testing, did extensive contact tracing, and much more. The only businesses that were shut down were specific businesses where someone tested positive. The businesses were closed for two weeks, disinfected, and then allowed to reopen. The death rate there has been negligible compared to most other countries, and they had a huge influx of people who arrived from Wuhan, and a huge spike in cases, initially. SK just proves what fast action and a coordinated strategy can do in such a pandemic. Intelligent leadership is key. Yes, sadly we don't have it. All we have is smoke and mirrors and optics and narcissism. I have a 2 acre lot, I think I'm going to buy a tent, just in case...worst case scenario... |
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 4, 2020 9:52:07 GMT -5
The country that's probably done the best job of containing the virus is South Korea, and they haven't had to shut down the economy. How have they done it? The government acted fast, instituted widespread testing, did extensive contact tracing, and much more. The only businesses that were shut down were specific businesses where someone tested positive. The businesses were closed for two weeks, disinfected, and then allowed to reopen. The death rate there has been negligible compared to most other countries, and they had a huge influx of people who arrived from Wuhan, and a huge spike in cases, initially. SK just proves what fast action and a coordinated strategy can do in such a pandemic. Intelligent leadership is key. I love the Chinese character for the word crisis. It contains two sub-characters; danger and opprtunity. You have your nose in the data alright, but you recently told me you were a big picture guy who sees things from 30,000 ft. Why then all the pessimism, doom, and gloom in your posts of late? Do you not also see the great potential for awakening THIS has unleashed on an otherwise sleeping world? Isn't that cause for at least some optimism too? I think zd is just dealing with what is, likewise here. I have been practicing pre-practice and then practice since starting this thread. But I know I could get this thing and die, or maybe more likely maybe not-die. I think I'd probably stay home, just let it play our either way. (I've seen my Father in the emergency room not be able to breath from congestive heart failure, and think he was dying, so I know how bad it could get. He did die 3 years ago, basically from diabetes complications (age 88). Also know this thing cuts oxygen levels, and if levels get below 90% that's automatic vital organ damage. My Mother would have been a prime candidate to succumb to Coronavirus, lung issues, but she died also October 2019, age 89, I'm thankful for that now). But I've lived with and studied and thought about death for over 45 years. Don Juan/Castaneda, the Desert Father and Mothers, and of course Gurdjieff. Mother Earth/nature could just be clearing out the "dead wood", actually protecting Herself. We (USA) have been doing "Stupid is as stupid does". But yes, on the other side life will go on for that vast majority who go through this thing, the 99%. Where is "John Galt"? |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2020 9:52:52 GMT -5
The country that's probably done the best job of containing the virus is South Korea, and they haven't had to shut down the economy. How have they done it? The government acted fast, instituted widespread testing, did extensive contact tracing, and much more. The only businesses that were shut down were specific businesses where someone tested positive. The businesses were closed for two weeks, disinfected, and then allowed to reopen. The death rate there has been negligible compared to most other countries, and they had a huge influx of people who arrived from Wuhan, and a huge spike in cases, initially. SK just proves what fast action and a coordinated strategy can do in such a pandemic. Intelligent leadership is key. Agreed. But what to do now? I think the governors are coordinating and cooperating. Putting pressure on others to do the right thing. Cali and Washington are bending the curve. There's some light. I think the testing is key. Better have enough test kit for the second wave so this doesn't go sideways again. |
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 4, 2020 10:37:15 GMT -5
The country that's probably done the best job of containing the virus is South Korea, and they haven't had to shut down the economy. How have they done it? The government acted fast, instituted widespread testing, did extensive contact tracing, and much more. The only businesses that were shut down were specific businesses where someone tested positive. The businesses were closed for two weeks, disinfected, and then allowed to reopen. The death rate there has been negligible compared to most other countries, and they had a huge influx of people who arrived from Wuhan, and a huge spike in cases, initially. SK just proves what fast action and a coordinated strategy can do in such a pandemic. Intelligent leadership is key. Agreed. But what to do now? I think the governors are coordinating and cooperating. Putting pressure on others to do the right thing. Cali and Washington are bending the curve. There's some light. I think the testing is key. Better have enough test kit for the second wave so this doesn't go sideways again. Yes. By the fall when the second go-round begins, we should be prepared to *do* South Korea, find cases (at point of care doing the 5-10 minute test), quarantine them to stop them from further spread. Etc. Yes, testing is everything, information is everything. |
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Post by zendancer on Apr 4, 2020 11:10:19 GMT -5
The country that's probably done the best job of containing the virus is South Korea, and they haven't had to shut down the economy. How have they done it? The government acted fast, instituted widespread testing, did extensive contact tracing, and much more. The only businesses that were shut down were specific businesses where someone tested positive. The businesses were closed for two weeks, disinfected, and then allowed to reopen. The death rate there has been negligible compared to most other countries, and they had a huge influx of people who arrived from Wuhan, and a huge spike in cases, initially. SK just proves what fast action and a coordinated strategy can do in such a pandemic. Intelligent leadership is key. I love the Chinese character for the word crisis. It contains two sub-characters; danger and opportunity. You have your nose in the data alright, but you recently told me you were a big picture guy who sees things from 30,000 ft. Why then all the pessimism, doom, and gloom in your posts of late? Do you not also see the great potential for awakening THIS has unleashed on an otherwise sleeping world? Isn't that cause for at least some optimism too? There's no doom and gloom here. I just look at what's happening, and warn people if warning seems appropriate. If you see a guy wearing headphones sitting on a railroad track with his back turned away from an approaching train, the most considerate thing you can do is make him aware of the oncoming train. It has nothing to do with either optimism or pessimism. I'm having fun every day working on a construction project, alone, and hiking in the woods enjoying the redbud trees, mayapples, trilliums, and all of the wild animals I get to see. What's not to like? |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2020 11:17:45 GMT -5
I love the Chinese character for the word crisis. It contains two sub-characters; danger and opportunity. You have your nose in the data alright, but you recently told me you were a big picture guy who sees things from 30,000 ft. Why then all the pessimism, doom, and gloom in your posts of late? Do you not also see the great potential for awakening THIS has unleashed on an otherwise sleeping world? Isn't that cause for at least some optimism too? There's no doom and gloom here. I just look at what's happening, and warn people if warning seems appropriate. If you see a guy wearing headphones sitting on a railroad track with his back turned away from an approaching train, the most considerate thing you can do is make him aware of the oncoming train. It has nothing to do with either optimism or pessimism. I'm having fun every day working on a construction project, alone, and hiking in the woods enjoying the redbud trees, mayapples, trilliums, and all of the wild animals I get to see. What's not to like? His questions are pretty valid. I have the same questions in my mind while I was reading your post . Your writing shows me that you are scared of the ongoing situation. |
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So I can see why there's an emphasis on the threat by the experts, even if it (hopefully) turns out to be an over-emphasis. Time will tell the tale of the tape in the numbers. 
