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Post by zendancer on Apr 3, 2020 11:46:06 GMT -5
L: There are several possible explanations, but more data is necessary before any definitive conclusions can be reached. Germany, as another example, has a very low death rate compared to the USA. Same same with Hong Kong and Taiwan, both of which have extensive connections with China. I agree about the efficacy of using a mask, but many stores now deliver groceries or will let you order online and place the groceries in the trunk of your car (eliminating the necessity of going indoors where there is a greater chance of being exposed to virus shedding). Virus loading seems to be a significant factor, and being indoors with asymptomatic carriers raises the risk appreciably. The virus was first identified in China in December, so although it's unlikely to have been in the USA in any appreciable degree much earlier than January, it apparently arrived here undetected because asymptomatic carriers were spreading it rather significantly during the first weeks of the year. By the time it was detected it had already begun to spread at an exponential rate. The average carrier infects 2.5 people, so until the infection rate drops below 1, the curve will continue to rise. Well, NYC is a travel hub to Europe and other parts. Plus population density in NYC is three times greater than LA. Plus NYC is the commercial capital of the US and maybe the world. My daughter traveled there for business recently. My son stopped there on his way to India. Agreed, and also Defasio was slow to implement restrictions whereas Calif was fairly fast by comparison. |
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Post by laughter on Apr 3, 2020 13:48:50 GMT -5
Well, NYC is a travel hub to Europe and other parts. Plus population density in NYC is three times greater than LA. Plus NYC is the commercial capital of the US and maybe the world. My daughter traveled there for business recently. My son stopped there on his way to India. Agreed, and also Defasio was slow to implement restrictions whereas Calif was fairly fast by comparison. By two days. |
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Post by laughter on Apr 3, 2020 13:56:31 GMT -5
L: There are several possible explanations, but more data is necessary before any definitive conclusions can be reached. Germany, as another example, has a very low death rate compared to the USA. Same same with Hong Kong and Taiwan, both of which have extensive connections with China. I agree about the efficacy of using a mask, but many stores now deliver groceries or will let you order online and place the groceries in the trunk of your car (eliminating the necessity of going indoors where there is a greater chance of being exposed to virus shedding). Virus loading seems to be a significant factor, and being indoors with asymptomatic carriers raises the risk appreciably. The virus was first identified in China in December, so although it's unlikely to have been in the USA in any appreciable degree much earlier than January, it apparently arrived here undetected because asymptomatic carriers were spreading it rather significantly during the first weeks of the year. By the time it was detected it had already begun to spread at an exponential rate. The average carrier infects 2.5 people, so until the infection rate drops below 1, the curve will continue to rise. Well, NYC is a travel hub to Europe and other parts. Plus population density in NYC is three times greater than LA. Plus NYC is the commercial capital of the US and maybe the world. My daughter traveled there for business recently. My son stopped there on his way to India. Yes, NY has a great degree of global interconnection, but so do SF, LA, Seattle and San Diego. The density argument is the most convincing. Twice I had women flirt with me quite brazenly and physically on the subway. Very memorable times.  But the density argument isn't the one that's presented in response to the question by the experts, and that's not the only obvious observation that noone is offering. All of the numbers people are using to describe and that the politicians are using to make their decisions are skewed by the rate of testing of the populations the numbers apply to, and there are obviously many facets to that skew. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2020 14:51:16 GMT -5
This is an excellent video by an ICU md in NYC. Very practical. No fear mongering, but also no downplaying the severity.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2020 16:46:45 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2020 16:49:58 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2020 16:58:00 GMT -5
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Post by zendancer on Apr 3, 2020 18:32:35 GMT -5
Agreed, and also Defasio was slow to implement restrictions whereas Calif was fairly fast by comparison. By two days. Even one day is important when the spread is exponential. Aside from that, we still have states that have not instituted any form of lockdown, and even in states that have asked people to stay home, churches are exempt, and people are still not abiding by the extremely-lenient rules. Today the local Lowes store was packed at 1PM according to a friend who went there. As I drove to a construction site (where I'm working alone) I saw numerous groups of people, and particularly young people, interacting as if nothing has changed. People in the USA are highly independent, and it now seems obvious that the 100K-200K death rate projection by Fauci and Birx will probably be wildly optimistic in retrospect. JMHO. |
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Post by laughter on Apr 3, 2020 19:06:34 GMT -5
Even one day is important when the spread is exponential. Aside from that, we still have states that have not instituted any form of lockdown, and even in states that have asked people to stay home, churches are exempt, and people are still not abiding by the extremely-lenient rules. Today the local Lowes store was packed at 1PM according to a friend who went there. As I drove to a construction site (where I'm working alone) I saw numerous groups of people, and particularly young people, interacting as if nothing has changed. People in the USA are highly independent, and it now seems obvious that the 100K-200K death rate projection by Fauci and Birx will probably be wildly optimistic in retrospect. JMHO. I'd agree that there's a sort of sense of denial for alot of people as this is happening. The Hannaford chain installed a plastic shield for their check-out clerks, as did the Lowe's here. But the folks at the local places - who I have a good rapport with - they looked at me like I was a Martian wearing that mask. So I can see why there's an emphasis on the threat by the experts, even if it (hopefully) turns out to be an over-emphasis. Time will tell the tale of the tape in the numbers. |
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 3, 2020 20:29:07 GMT -5
Even one day is important when the spread is exponential. Aside from that, we still have states that have not instituted any form of lockdown, and even in states that have asked people to stay home, churches are exempt, and people are still not abiding by the extremely-lenient rules. Today the local Lowes store was packed at 1PM according to a friend who went there. As I drove to a construction site (where I'm working alone) I saw numerous groups of people, and particularly young people, interacting as if nothing has changed. People in the USA are highly independent, and it now seems obvious that the 100K-200K death rate projection by Fauci and Birx will probably be wildly optimistic in retrospect. JMHO. I'd agree that there's a sort of sense of denial for alot of people as this is happening. The Hannaford chain installed a plastic shield for their check-out clerks, as did the Lowe's here. But the folks at the local places - who I have a good rapport with - they looked at me like I was a Martian wearing that mask. So I can see why there's an emphasis on the threat by the experts, even if it (hopefully) turns out to be an over-emphasis. Time will tell the tale of the tape in the numbers. I've been running some numbers on facebook. Using actual numbers of confirmed cases I arrived at 112,000 deaths by May 20, in the US. This using doubling cases every six days, with deaths following in two weeks. This was done March 31 1:12 PM. And this using a conservative 1% of cases resulting in death. Explained more fully in the post. Last night (20 hours ago) I decided to take the actual number of deaths and work backwards two weeks to get a guess at the actual number of cases versus the number of positive tests. (Basically, I came up with approximately double the verified positive cases). And then I took that number and projected two weeks ahead to get the number of deaths (because if you have Coronavirus you basically are either dead or over it in two weeks). Explained more fully in the post. Doing this I arrived at 172,224 deaths by May 2 in the US. I worked out the deaths for two more weeks, but didn't post it as it got very ugly by then. This is only based on doubling every six days and a 1% death rate (yes, that's a guess at this point, but I'd say conservative guess). Doing this I came up with 10,764 deaths by Monday April 6. We seem to be on track for this. A different set of math, the first paragraph above, I also projected on March 31, 350,000 confirmed cases by Monday April 6. We are also on track to reach this, probably before Monday. The USA is basically screwed. "Stupid is as stupid does". F,FG No matter what we do here we are always two weeks behind. ("You have to skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it is". Wayne Gretsky) www.facebook.com/darrell.connell.14 |
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 3, 2020 21:14:48 GMT -5
FWIW, the CDC is considering recommending that people wear face masks outdoors to avoid spreading the virus through talking or laughing as well as through sneezing or coughing. It appears that some asymptomatic people shed virus more profusely than others and more profusely than originally imagined. Face masks are common in Asia but virtually non-existent in the USA. Stay tuned. We may see another 180 degree flip. Yes, done today. (Friday 4-3-20) |
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Apr 3, 2020 21:19:49 GMT -5
Are you speaking of plans at the level of government, or elsewhere Reefs ? What gives you evidence for those plans existing? In the UK (and this is filtered through the media of course) it very much seems like our government is working / reacting day to day and can't seem more than a week ahead - with the exception of some hints coming from other countries further on than we are (looting in Italy now?). This is evidenced by a gradual filling in of the response - what about the self employed, what about construction workers etc all questions being asked of our government and the response comes a couple of days later. I'm certainly enjoying the quietness. No planes in the sky, barely any cars on the road. If we could find a way to make this our way of life after this blows over then we could really address climate issues quickly. It would be radical action indeed.
He is not talking about plans at the level of government. He is saying Life is making that change.
Why do you think that there would be a climate change? Any reason? I can sense it somehow, but what's the logic behind it? Yesterday I saw a story on satellite pictures showing less air pollution in US. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2020 22:47:40 GMT -5
If you go here: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and scroll down to the "total cases" graph, and click on logarithmic, you can see that we are doing better than an unimpeded exponential. The curve is bending down. It would be straight if the mitigation was not working. But it's hard to look at stats... as Twain said: lies, damned lies, and statistics. One big ?? is the amount of testing. |
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Post by Reefs on Apr 3, 2020 22:48:12 GMT -5
Yesterday I saw a story on satellite pictures showing less air pollution in US. Don't just trust those reports. About a month ago, I've read reports that China air pollution was almost gone when in fact it wasn't, it was still in the red as usual. But it did fit a certain narrative at the time. Now, the US is usually mostly in the green anyway. So you've got to always check for yourself. Here's a good website (also comes as an app for your phone): www.iqair.com/earth?nav |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2020 0:49:16 GMT -5
He is not talking about plans at the level of government. He is saying Life is making that change.
Why do you think that there would be a climate change? Any reason? I can sense it somehow, but what's the logic behind it? Yesterday I saw a story on satellite pictures showing less air pollution in US. ok |
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