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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2020 18:12:14 GMT -5
Sorry if this is too off-topic. I'm not offended if gets deleted.  TSLA seems like a group mind or cult stock, so there is some interesting psychology to it. I noticed the market cap on this thing is over 10x Ford, and approaching 10x GM. What are they betting on - that it's going to take over all vehicle manufacturing for the entire world? I rode in a Tesla once. It was cool but not that impressive. The interior seemed normal or even dumb in some places, and the driver –using single pedal velocity control – made people nauseous with too much up/down velocity changes. (That may be fixable with a vehicle setting or better driver). Anyway, I find it hard to believe that Chevy and Ford can't eventually market a Mustang-E or Bolt or whatever. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2020 20:07:07 GMT -5
“Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” 72 on the Fear and Greed index this morning, with put options rated extreme greed  but that doesn't make sense, surely the Street knows that liberal socialist progressive commies are about to seize control of government  Ha, yeah. I like that quote about the irrational market. I also like that scene in the Big Short where he shorts the mortgage securities and they all laugh at him. In that case he did stay solvent long enough. I looked up that "fear and greed" index. Hadn't seen that before. About the puts, I think it said that because the put level were _low_, that this was a mark of "greed". Anyway, I know it's a not completely serious. |
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Post by lolly on Aug 21, 2020 1:34:26 GMT -5
It's an unusual company, so it can't reasonably be compared with car makers who dominated the market in the past. Indeed Tesla led the charge to electric cars. Others were making them before, but not with live software updates or the hardware for self-driving already installed. Indeed, Tesla has changed the way we look at cars - a car that gets better as you own it. This means that Tesla is not a simple car company. They are vertically integrated and make their own batteries, computer chips and operation software and AI learning. Tesla already have millions of miles of driver data utilised by AI deep learning, and are miles ahead of the competition. In addition to being a car, computer hardware and softwar tech company, Tesla is also an energy company that utilises solar and battery storage, and they integrate their vehicle batteries with home solar and the grid. Hence if the power goes out at home, you could power the house with your car... Actually, solar array and energy storage solutions for renewables is a bigger growth market sector than the vehicle market, and Biden has already committed to a multi-billion USD renewable energy plan. Lastly, Tesla has access to everything that SpaceX does, such as, advanced fabrication techniques, space-age materials and so forth, etc, and so on. Most analysists are looking at car sales when saying the company is overvalued (they forget it is a tech and an energy company as well) and keep comparing market cap to Ford, GM etc (who are not tech or energy companies), and indeed, the share price already has a lot of future growth priced in, but there are energy markets that Tesla has hardly touched yet, and we might very well be underestimating how fast the company as a whole will grow. Elon (yes, first name basis) said he expects 50% pa growth for the forseeable future. I expect Tesla will exceed that rate, all things considered, and Elon is being uncharacteristically conservative. I wouldn't buy Tesla shares at current $1800 + price because that inflated price is not based on fundamentals. It is on the up due to the hype over an upcoming 5:1 stock spit - and those gains will probably tank once the hype is over. I was waiting for it to come down and buy in at 1300 USD, but, yeah, like that's gunna happen now. That said, based on track record, I wouldn't go short.
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Post by Reefs on Sept 3, 2020 10:33:03 GMT -5
Does this track record also include cars unexpectedly catching fire, cars on autopilot suddenly shutting down on train tracks or veering off into oncoming traffic or crashing into parking lots on almost a daily basis? It does seem to me that it's not the just the stock that is overrated here. Also, when I hear the name Tesla, I think of free energy, not rechargeable batteries. That's like 19th century technology, isn't it? Shouldn't we expect something better by now? Running on stored energy (gasoline, hydrogen, electricity or whatever) seems so old-school.
Any thoughts?
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Post by lolly on Sept 13, 2020 5:04:03 GMT -5
Does this track record also include cars unexpectedly catching fire, cars on autopilot suddenly shutting down on train tracks or veering off into oncoming traffic or crashing into parking lots on almost a daily basis? It does seem to me that it's not the just the stock that is overrated here. Also, when I hear the name Tesla, I think of free energy, not rechargeable batteries. That's like 19th century technology, isn't it? Shouldn't we expect something better by now? Running on stored energy (gasoline, hydrogen, electricity or whatever) seems so old-school. Any thoughts? It's just about inevitable that we'll go through a solar/wind industrial battery energy storage phase, but as more panels are installed on homes with battery packs, as well cars etc. having additional storage, well see a decentralised electricity distribution system emerge. Each home dweller/car owner will then become both a consumer and producer of elecricity using a blockchain ledger transaction system. A company called Powerledger has been doing trials and forming numerous partnerships, and have their blockchain currency listed on most cryptocurrency exchanges. I bought $100 worth of their coins a couple of days ago - just for a bit of skin in that game.
I said in my first post that the latest Tesla share price surge was all hype and no fundamentals, so the recent dump was to be expected, and no surprises there. Tech stocks in general just became overheated and now they are having a cool down, but then Tesla will shoot up again over the hype of battery day, and go to the moon with the release of the Cybertruck. As soon as self-driving software is out, which could be Tesla first (but Intel owned Mobiileye is a 'quiet achiever' in that space), the 'robotaxi' market will wipe UBER and LYFT form Earth's face. Tesla is best positioned for that too because Mobileye do the chips and software, and they have millions of miles of driver data for the AI, but they don't make cars. Tesla will probably crush the robotaxi market, and make about 1 gazzillionious dollaroonies.
Free energy over the air. Did Nicola Tesla really figure that out? Or is it urban legend? Probably the latter, but you have to admire the guy for aspiring high...
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Sept 13, 2020 12:18:49 GMT -5
Does this track record also include cars unexpectedly catching fire, cars on autopilot suddenly shutting down on train tracks or veering off into oncoming traffic or crashing into parking lots on almost a daily basis? It does seem to me that it's not the just the stock that is overrated here. Also, when I hear the name Tesla, I think of free energy, not rechargeable batteries. That's like 19th century technology, isn't it? Shouldn't we expect something better by now? Running on stored energy (gasoline, hydrogen, electricity or whatever) seems so old-school. Any thoughts? Free energy over the air. Did Nicola Tesla really figure that out? Or is it urban legend? Probably the latter, but you have to admire the guy for aspiring high...
Tesla himself thought he had solved the problem of sending electricity through the sky and through the earth without wires. He built Wardenclyffe Tower at Long Island, NY to experiment in this area. (But he told his backer, JP Morgan, the tower was to experiment with radio, and when this was found out the money stopped). But if he actually did solve this problem, it died with him. I don't think this is possible. Yes, electricity can flow through the air in the form of lightning, but generally, electricity needs a means to travel. Electricity isn't a something that flows, it's the short-distance-flow of electrons. Copper has a free electron so the electron is easily displaced. When we pay for electricity what we are paying for is the pressure to move electrons in the wiring of our house. Any single electron does not move very far. It pushes an electron near it and that electron pushes the one near it so there is a flow kind of like in a sports stadium wave. So electricity will not flow much further than a lightning bolt, without wires, it needs a medium of transfer and displacement of electrons. So no, I don't think Tesla solved the problem of wireless electricity. (You would still have to pay for generation anyway, the force of displacement). Tesla also lived Colorado Springs, Co. for a while and experimented there also. www.atlasobscura.com/articles/what-is-wardenclyffe-tower-nikola-tesla |
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Post by Reefs on Mar 21, 2021 5:50:22 GMT -5
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Post by inavalan on Mar 21, 2021 16:49:27 GMT -5
I like that guy's videos. His jokes are more truthful than many news headlines. |
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Post by stardustpilgrim on Sept 29, 2021 20:39:32 GMT -5
I just saw a program on PBS on Elon Musk....Oh, just remembered maybe a better place to post this...
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TSLA seems like a group mind or cult stock, so there is some interesting psychology to it. 
