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Post by laughter on Mar 30, 2020 10:53:13 GMT -5
Can't deny that this is a significant event, but on the other hand, there has also been a significant reaction to it, the question is, what happens going forward? Please bear in mind the specifics of that skepticism. If that reaction is driven by the numbers, then let the numbers speak for themselves. If 425 people died on average in NYS in 2017, and it's reported that 200+ died in one day from the virus over the weekend, then was the total number of deaths on that day in the state north of 200? Or wasn't it? As far as the skating-rink-mourge goes, I'm keeping an eye on this source, as I found it to be quite objective during the time I was living in the city, and as I already wrote, evidence of overflow at the hospitals certainly would corroborate and justify a longer public lockdown on a national scale. But up until now, despite the alarmist tone and dire predictions in all the reports, the numbers haven't corroborated this. There's at least one guy on the forum who lives in the NYC area and maybe he might post some eyewitness accounts of WIBIGO. Personally, I'm not taking any chances, and I'm certainly willing to characterize anything that might eventually be seen as an overreaction in hindsight as a justified overreaction based on the information available right now. On the other hand, Gov. Cuomo, in one of his briefings, was quite candid about the nature of advocacy, in that an advocate for action or for, say, a hospital, is never going to say "ok, yes, you've done/given us enough". It's just not the nature of the beast. My skim of that Gates foundation analysis I linked to previously suggests that we won't need 30,000 ventilators. Like I said. I hope you're right. Well, I've only implied anything that I might be right or wrong about, and that's because I clearly don't know, and am only trying to let the truth leak around from the edges of the 3rd++-hand knowledge that's available to me. It's the way I've interpreted the news ever since I was old enough to think critically. |
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Post by laughter on Mar 30, 2020 11:18:38 GMT -5
As Papaji used to say, "Wait and see." We'll know soon enough. Right, so the author makes the same point I made about distorted numbers here. The reported total deaths from the virus in NYC today is almost 800 people. The current rate (number of people dying from covid / per day ), if it really is in addition to the typical daily count from all causes, is quite significant. The mayor has reported a spike in 911 calls, but then again, on the other hand, I haven't seen any reports of hospital overflow yet, and the number cases in icu, on ventilators, or even the population curve among the deaths isn't being reported. It is being mentioned, from time-to-time, that most people testing positive are either asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms, and that most of the deaths are people who are older or otherwise in poor health, but that's all essentially being whispered in most reporting. With all the international interconnection the city has, the community spread probably began in the boroughs back in early January. At this point, with the steps that have been taken nationally, and the authorities in other states looking to quarantine New Yorker's, and assuming this virus follows the typical seasonality, the interior of the country likely won't see the worst of this until the winter. That's what those flattened curves say with their trailing-off tails: fewer people effected, longer overall event duration. Those curves are for a single, overall population, applying an event to that population in isolation. The actual national curve, in future history, will likely have several different local minima and local maxima. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2020 11:19:47 GMT -5
I have been following the data on this closely. I was particularly interested in countries that are doing comprehensive testing. It seemed mortality rates in SK and Germany were far lower than what Italy, Spain even China reported. But these have crept steadily upward in those two countries nearing 2% in SK and approaching 1% in Germany. I've been reading about 1918 pandemic as well. That pandemic had about a 1% mortality rate. 1/3 of the USA was infected, 50,000,000 an estimated 500,000 died or around 1%. Given the mortality rate of this disease, I hope and believe we can keep the infection rate lower than the 1918 pandemic. Good luck to all of you and stay safe. What you should be following closely is where this data comes from that feeds these models. You probably know the term GIGO (garbage in, garbage out). I've found an interesting article on the HHS site where someone made this point about influenza statistics that, while the CDC does acknowledge a distinction between flu deaths and flu-related deaths, the term is very often used interchangeably. So before we buy into some models, we should make sure it's built on sound data. And as far as I can tell, as of now, there still exists great confusion about the actual quality of the data. John Hopkins. It's simple. The data I look for is best case. South Korea and Germany. Both employing comprehensive testing. Both with state of the art medical system and extremely thorough recording. These two countries have also had the lowest mortality rate. So I assume that Italy has such a high mortality rate because there is some thing wrong with the data. Initially, I was only looking at South Korea and saw their mortality rate was well below the WHO rate. I attributed that to extensive testing and thought this is the country to watch. When Germany came online and showed a much lower mortality rate than South Korea, I started reading articles about their approach and tracking their data. I noticed two things as the virus progressed in both SK and Germany the mortality rates began to creep up ward. Germany is now approaching 1% and SK 2%. In my estimation this puts the mortality rate of this disease probably higher than 1%. The 1918 flu was about a 1% killer and it killed about 50,000,000 worldwide, 500,000 in the U S. It infected about 1/3 of the world's population. The 2009 pandemic infected 1/5 of the US even with a vaccine. Do the arithmetic. It's simple. Any way you slice it. It's an ugly picture. This compulsion with numbers is innate, genetic. Nothing to do with fear. |
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Post by Reefs on Mar 30, 2020 11:39:45 GMT -5
The thing about science is that every question it answers will always lead to several new avenues of inquiry. Precisely. That's also the potential problem I see with psychotherapy (and becoming conscious or WIBIGO). There's a real risk of getting lost in a fractal of problems that need to be solved. It never ends. On the other hand, with the alignment approach, you go back to your default position, do a reset and things will take care of themselves. I don't know what a revival of true spirituality would look like but I do know, that while: () on one hand panic actually does have a use as an instinctual response, () but on the other, cognitive distortion is the seed of unjustified panic, and () unjustified panic is a very potent and often-used Machiavellian tool. In this case, the scientific method definitely has a place in undoing what it might have been misused for, or, on the other hand sorting out whether it was used properly in the first instance. From a biological perspective, it's very simple. Fear is immediate, specific and moment to moment. The body is well-equipped to deal with that. Psychological fear, however, is vague, hard to define and tends to linger around much longer. And the body is not well-equipped for that kind of permanent stress. An enemy you can see, you can deal with directly. An enemy you cannot see, you may not be able to deal with at all. I don't know what will happen, but I pray for all those effected and am curious as to how the numbers will actually play out, and I would suggest that anyone feeling particularly interested or foreboding during these times to keep an eye on the facts and numbers applicable to where you live. Well, we can't just compare numbers. We first have to find out what these numbers represent. Do we know how they count in Italy? Or China? That's important, because as per Dr. Birx, the models for the US are mainly based on data that only slowly becomes available now from China and South Korea, because they are 3-4 weeks ahead. So it looks to me that there are several levels of speculation involved. There's a huge grey area. And maybe that's the reason why there's such a huge gap between the best case scenario (back to normal after Easter) and the worst case scenario (at least 3 more months of quarantine). |
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Post by laughter on Mar 30, 2020 12:08:30 GMT -5
The thing about science is that every question it answers will always lead to several new avenues of inquiry. Precisely. That's also the potential problem I see with psychotherapy (and becoming conscious or WIBIGO). There's a real risk of getting lost in a fractal of problems that need to be solved. It never ends. On the other hand, with the alignment approach, you go back to your default position, do a reset and things will take care of themselves. I don't know what a revival of true spirituality would look like but I do know, that while: () on one hand panic actually does have a use as an instinctual response, () but on the other, cognitive distortion is the seed of unjustified panic, and () unjustified panic is a very potent and often-used Machiavellian tool. In this case, the scientific method definitely has a place in undoing what it might have been misused for, or, on the other hand sorting out whether it was used properly in the first instance. From a biological perspective, it's very simple. Fear is immediate, specific and moment to moment. The body is well-equipped to deal with that. Psychological fear, however, is vague, hard to define and tends to linger around much longer. And the body is not well-equipped for that kind of permanent stress. An enemy you can see, you can deal with directly. An enemy you cannot see, you may not be able to deal with at all. I don't know what will happen, but I pray for all those effected and am curious as to how the numbers will actually play out, and I would suggest that anyone feeling particularly interested or foreboding during these times to keep an eye on the facts and numbers applicable to where you live. Well, we can't just compare numbers. We first have to find out what these numbers represent. Do we know how they count in Italy? Or China? That's important, because as per Dr. Birx, the models for the US are mainly based on data that only slowly becomes available now from China and South Korea, because they are 3-4 weeks ahead. So it looks to me that there are several levels of speculation involved. There's a huge grey area. And maybe that's the reason why there's such a huge gap between the best case scenario (back to normal after Easter) and the worst case scenario (at least 3 more months of quarantine). The models are sound in their overall structure, albeit limited in the patterns they represent by the fact of their idealization. Where the potential for disinformation - both GIGO and then, amplification of falsity - is in the specific parameters fed into those models. Everyone knows at this point that there's a very wide range of death rate: it's some fraction of 1%, but there's a wide range of variation in the denominator of that fraction. The (future final) infection rate has more unknowns, but think of how mostly everyone gets exposed to the common cold each year, so north of 50% as a floor is likely not a bad starting point. I've got no explanation for the numbers out of Italy other than: they say there are more smokers, an older population with access to socialized care (so more people going to the hospital and more admissions, even with milder symptoms (which spreads the disease faster, btw)), a high % of multi-generational homes, and a very high social interconnectivty with China. It's harder to hide information in the U.S. than in China, but it's notable that they're not publishing the number of hospital admissions for covid, and the number of these that go to the icu, and the number of these on ventilator's. They're also not publishing the statistics about the people they're reporting as having died from the virus: their ages and whether they were otherwise generally healthy. This is why I'm looking for other signs of stress on the system, in particular, actual cases of people being diverted to temporary hospitals or transported out of the metropolitan region for hospitalization. edit: just noticed that Cuomo briefed the number of hosptalizations and the number on ventilators ("intubations"). He related that it's difficult to tell from the data so far, but that it suggests the rate of presentation of new severe cases might be slowing down. |
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Post by Reefs on Mar 30, 2020 12:29:35 GMT -5
The models are sound in their overall structure, albeit limited in the patterns they represent by the fact of their idealization. Where the potential for disinformation - both GIGO and then, amplification of falsity - is in the specific parameters fed into those models. Everyone knows at this point that there's a very wide range of death rate: it's some fraction of 1%, but there's a wide range of variation in the denominator of that fraction. The (future final) infection rate has more unknowns, but think of how mostly everyone gets exposed to the common cold each year, so north of 50% as a floor is likely not a bad starting point. I've got no explanation for the numbers out of Italy other than: they say there are more smokers, an older population with access to socialized care (so more people going to the hospital and more admissions, even with milder symptoms (which spreads the disease faster, btw)), a high % of multi-generational homes, and a very high social interconnectivty with China. It's harder to hide information in the U.S. than in China, but it's notable that they're not publishing the number of hospital admissions for covid, and the number of these that go to the icu, and the number of these on ventilator's. They're also not publishing the statistics about the people they're reporting as having died from the virus: their ages and whether they were otherwise generally healthy. This is why I'm looking for other signs of stress on the system, in particular, actual cases of people being diverted to temporary hospitals or transported out of the metropolitan region for hospitalization. Well, being at the very bottom of the information chain as we are, it's difficult to come up with a good explanation right now. But being the eternal optimist and having enormous faith in human ingenuity, I just can't see the worst case scenario even being an option, especially worldwide. But we will know soon enough. As for other signs, there are those 2 hospital ships that have just arrived in LA and NYC. |
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Post by laughter on Mar 30, 2020 12:32:31 GMT -5
The models are sound in their overall structure, albeit limited in the patterns they represent by the fact of their idealization. Where the potential for disinformation - both GIGO and then, amplification of falsity - is in the specific parameters fed into those models. Everyone knows at this point that there's a very wide range of death rate: it's some fraction of 1%, but there's a wide range of variation in the denominator of that fraction. The (future final) infection rate has more unknowns, but think of how mostly everyone gets exposed to the common cold each year, so north of 50% as a floor is likely not a bad starting point. I've got no explanation for the numbers out of Italy other than: they say there are more smokers, an older population with access to socialized care (so more people going to the hospital and more admissions, even with milder symptoms (which spreads the disease faster, btw)), a high % of multi-generational homes, and a very high social interconnectivty with China. It's harder to hide information in the U.S. than in China, but it's notable that they're not publishing the number of hospital admissions for covid, and the number of these that go to the icu, and the number of these on ventilator's. They're also not publishing the statistics about the people they're reporting as having died from the virus: their ages and whether they were otherwise generally healthy. This is why I'm looking for other signs of stress on the system, in particular, actual cases of people being diverted to temporary hospitals or transported out of the metropolitan region for hospitalization. Well, being at the very bottom of the information chain as we are, it's difficult to come up with a good explanation right now. But being the eternal optimist and having enormous faith in human ingenuity, I just can't see the worst case scenario even being an option, especially worldwide. But we will know soon enough. As for other signs, there are those 2 hospital ships that have just arrived in LA and NYC. Had to edit as per Cuomo's briefing. Note that those ships are being used for non-covid cases to relieve pressure on the system generally and as a whole, so they won't be a source of relevant data. Yes, all my speculative over-analysis is precisely because of my position at the base of the totem pole.  |
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Post by Reefs on Mar 30, 2020 12:57:34 GMT -5
Well, being at the very bottom of the information chain as we are, it's difficult to come up with a good explanation right now. But being the eternal optimist and having enormous faith in human ingenuity, I just can't see the worst case scenario even being an option, especially worldwide. But we will know soon enough. As for other signs, there are those 2 hospital ships that have just arrived in LA and NYC. Had to edit as per Cuomo's briefing. Note that those ships are being used for non-covid cases to relieve pressure on the system generally and as a whole, so they won't be a source of relevant data. Yes, all my speculative over-analysis is precisely because of my position at the base of the totem pole. Right, and there's nothing we can do about it right now, is there? Except maybe practicing some ATA -T...  As in all situations of crisis, it's worth making an assessment of what can be done and what can't anything be done about. And then focus on what can be done and let the rest be, aka trust in God but tie your camel. |
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Post by justlikeyou on Mar 30, 2020 13:04:01 GMT -5
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Post by laughter on Mar 30, 2020 13:48:41 GMT -5
Had to edit as per Cuomo's briefing. Note that those ships are being used for non-covid cases to relieve pressure on the system generally and as a whole, so they won't be a source of relevant data. Yes, all my speculative over-analysis is precisely because of my position at the base of the totem pole. Right, and there's nothing we can do about it right now, is there? Except maybe practicing some ATA -T...  As in all situations of crisis, it's worth making an assessment of what can be done and what can't anything be done about. And then focus on what can be done and let the rest be, aka trust in God but tie your camel. Yeah, remindes me of an old idea from a guy named Dale Carnegie: circle of influence vs. circle of concern. |
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Post by laughter on Mar 30, 2020 14:59:47 GMT -5
My mother used to joke : "you can live forever if you give up everything worth living for" |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2020 17:08:54 GMT -5
What does this show? It shows that an asymptomatic carrier can shed the virus via aerosol transmission, alone. Choir members who were interviewed said that no one during the practice was coughing or sneezing. They also said that everyone purposely refrained from hugging or touching. Singing seems like it would be really bad - pumping it out all over the place. But they probably also touched the same surfaces - door knobs, railings, song books, etc. It could have also spread that way. |
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Post by zendancer on Mar 30, 2020 17:49:22 GMT -5
What does this show? It shows that an asymptomatic carrier can shed the virus via aerosol transmission, alone. Choir members who were interviewed said that no one during the practice was coughing or sneezing. They also said that everyone purposely refrained from hugging or touching. Singing seems like it would be really bad - pumping it out all over the place. But they probably also touched the same surfaces - door knobs, railings, song books, etc. It could have also spread that way. That might account for some cases, but I suspect the main culprit was aerosol related. |
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Post by justlikeyou on Mar 30, 2020 18:01:24 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2020 20:00:31 GMT -5
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