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Post by zendancer on Mar 18, 2020 17:54:03 GMT -5
It will be interesting to watch, but as it stands right now, even in Italy the number of cases that are considered other than "mild" is only 8%, not 20. 2300 critical, ICU, patients, but 13,000 folks hospitalized who could become critical. Italy Trump-Virus StoryThe article you posted claimed 31,000 confirmed cases, 13,000 hospitalized and 2000 in ICU's. That's even higher than the rates I've seen publicized. Today in NYC there were 1000 new cases. This thing is going exponential, and if a few million deaths are considered okay, then there's no problem. The economic repercussions are virtually unimaginable. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2020 18:41:44 GMT -5
The article you posted claimed 31,000 confirmed cases, 13,000 hospitalized and 2000 in ICU's. That's even higher than the rates I've seen publicized. Today in NYC there were 1000 new cases. This thing is going exponential, and if a few million deaths are considered okay, then there's no problem. The economic repercussions are virtually unimaginable. The country went through this in 1918. We survived and thrived. In October of 1918 alone 150,000 Americans died from the swine flu. We can get through this. |
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Post by justlikeyou on Mar 18, 2020 19:46:16 GMT -5
The article you posted claimed 31,000 confirmed cases, 13,000 hospitalized and 2000 in ICU's. That's even higher than the rates I've seen publicized. Today in NYC there were 1000 new cases. This thing is going exponential, and if a few million deaths are considered okay, then there's no problem. The economic repercussions are virtually unimaginable. Perhaps, ZD, but one of the female MDs at Trump presser today (I don't recall her name) suggested that there would be such a spike being the result of labs only now coming online to process mass quantities of tests, and a spike in the numbers would be seen as a result of a 5 day backlog of tests suddenly being processed. She also said the numbers next week will tell a better story. |
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Post by zendancer on Mar 18, 2020 21:03:37 GMT -5
The article you posted claimed 31,000 confirmed cases, 13,000 hospitalized and 2000 in ICU's. That's even higher than the rates I've seen publicized. Today in NYC there were 1000 new cases. This thing is going exponential, and if a few million deaths are considered okay, then there's no problem. The economic repercussions are virtually unimaginable. Perhaps, ZD, but one of the female MDs at Trump presser today (I don't recall her name) suggested that there would be such a spike being the result of labs only now coming online to process mass quantities of tests, and a spike in the numbers would be seen as a result of a 5 day backlog of tests suddenly being processed. She also said the numbers next week will tell a better story. Totally agree, but that's not what I'm pointing to. The spread is exponential. Without severe social distancing, this will continue. It's like a fire; if it isn't put out rapidly, the perimeter increases faster and wider until it can't be contained. No panic; just a fact. The biggest problem with this virus is that it can be spread for days by people who are asymptomatic and don't even know they have it. It may not kill them, but it may kill the people they come in contact with. At the biogen conference, one guy infected 83 people that we know about. There may have been more. |
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Post by justlikeyou on Mar 18, 2020 21:13:09 GMT -5
Perhaps, ZD, but one of the female MDs at Trump presser today (I don't recall her name) suggested that there would be such a spike being the result of labs only now coming online to process mass quantities of tests, and a spike in the numbers would be seen as a result of a 5 day backlog of tests suddenly being processed. She also said the numbers next week will tell a better story. Totally agree, but that's not what I'm pointing to. The spread is exponential. Without severe social distancing, this will continue. It's like a fire; if it isn't put out rapidly, the perimeter increases faster and wider until it can't be contained. No panic; just a fact. The biggest problem with this virus is that it can be spread for days by people who are asymptomatic and don't even know they have it. It may not kill them, but it may kill the people they come in contact with. At the biogen conference, one guy infected 83 people that we know about. There may have been more. Yes, I agree with all of that. I think if the numbers continue to spike, the govt will impose a lockdown/Marshal Law. No doubt. Personally, I've been ready for this kind of thing since 1998, and have long encouraged others to be so as well. But in the end, it will be as it will be and perfectly so. |
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Post by laughter on Mar 19, 2020 4:05:55 GMT -5
Totally agree, but that's not what I'm pointing to. The spread is exponential. Without severe social distancing, this will continue. It's like a fire; if it isn't put out rapidly, the perimeter increases faster and wider until it can't be contained. No panic; just a fact. The biggest problem with this virus is that it can be spread for days by people who are asymptomatic and don't even know they have it. It may not kill them, but it may kill the people they come in contact with. At the biogen conference, one guy infected 83 people that we know about. There may have been more. Yes, I agree with all of that. I think if the numbers continue to spike, the govt will impose a lockdown/Marshal Law. No doubt. Personally, I've been ready for this kind of thing since 1998, and have long encouraged others to be so as well. But in the end, it will be as it will be and perfectly so. And that's precisely the point where a cost benefit analysis between authoritative action and 2 million deaths becomes relevant. Just like the virus itself, we don't have to wait until then to consider taking action, of whatever form, no matter how inconsequential it might seem in the relative scheme of things. |
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Post by laughter on Mar 19, 2020 4:11:14 GMT -5
It will be interesting to watch, but as it stands right now, even in Italy the number of cases that are considered other than "mild" is only 8%, not 20. 2300 critical, ICU, patients, but 13,000 folks hospitalized who could become critical. Italy Trump-Virus StoryWell, the number of beds/admissions is what it is, and it's impractical to maintain a pandemic capacity indefinitely. So I'm not denying it's not an issue. Clearly, it's a crisis. On the other hand, it's having it both ways to calculate percentages on ratio's of reported cases / negative outcomes, on one hand, and then to say that there are 10x-50x the number of reported cases, on the other. That's distorting the numbers. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2020 6:31:44 GMT -5
Perhaps, ZD, but one of the female MDs at Trump presser today (I don't recall her name) suggested that there would be such a spike being the result of labs only now coming online to process mass quantities of tests, and a spike in the numbers would be seen as a result of a 5 day backlog of tests suddenly being processed. She also said the numbers next week will tell a better story. Totally agree, but that's not what I'm pointing to. The spread is exponential. Without severe social distancing, this will continue. It's like a fire; if it isn't put out rapidly, the perimeter increases faster and wider until it can't be contained. No panic; just a fact. The biggest problem with this virus is that it can be spread for days by people who are asymptomatic and don't even know they have it. It may not kill them, but it may kill the people they come in contact with. At the biogen conference, one guy infected 83 people that we know about. There may have been more. Lot of people are saying not to afraid because recovery rate is high, but I exactly have the same feeling like you. |
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Post by Reefs on Mar 19, 2020 9:25:01 GMT -5
From a LOA perspective, trying to make personal decisions based on statistics of others is classic loserthink because what happens to someone else has nothing to do with you. You cannot create in their reality and they cannot create in your reality - unless (!) you make their reality your own personal business and vice versa. Then you are linked together and depending on the degree that happens you will have similar/identical experiences. And that, unfortunately, is usually the case. So, no mater how 'scientifically/mathematically' accurate these statistics come across, these are just models, meaning what they predict, on an average/collective level, may prove quite accurate, but on an individual level, basically anything goes because in the end it is always the individual who decides where he/she allows it to go or not to go (be that consciously or unconsciously). So don't lose your minds over these numbers. Make your own statistics instead as they relate specifically to you and your family.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2020 18:45:16 GMT -5
Well, the number of beds/admissions is what it is, and it's impractical to maintain a pandemic capacity indefinitely. So I'm not denying it's not an issue. Clearly, it's a crisis. On the other hand, it's having it both ways to calculate percentages on ratio's of reported cases / negative outcomes, on one hand, and then to say that there are 10x-50x the number of reported cases, on the other. That's distorting the numbers. So how'd you get your 8% critical number, smarty pants? 😁 But you're right Ratios and percentages are not accurate at this time. Except I think in SK we've got our best data. Now Germany has a .0027 mortality rate, but I suspect that number will change as the disease progresses. It's early on there. |
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Post by justlikeyou on Mar 19, 2020 19:43:45 GMT -5
I don't know, but I'm beginning to suspect that this is the opening act in the greatest PsyOps ever perpetrated upon an unsuspecting world. We'll see soon enough.
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Post by runstill on Mar 19, 2020 20:22:27 GMT -5
I don't know, but I'm beginning to suspect that this is the opening act in the greatest PsyOps ever perpetrated upon an unsuspecting world. We'll see soon enough. I see a lot of evidence of this, like you said we'll know soon enough. On a more positive note a 70 year old treatment for Malaria is kicking some kungflu ass. see link linkOh fudge I can't get the link to work, just google [ chloroquine: 70 year old malaria treatment for corona virus |
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Post by justlikeyou on Mar 19, 2020 20:30:34 GMT -5
I don't know, but I'm beginning to suspect that this is the opening act in the greatest PsyOps ever perpetrated upon an unsuspecting world. We'll see soon enough. I see a lot of evidence of this, like you said we'll know soon enough. On a more positive note a 70 year old treatment for Malaria is kicking some kungflu ass. see link linkYes, that. And too, I hear there is early data to suggests that plasma injections from those that have recovered and injected into the afflicted are having a profound healing effect. Fingers crossed. |
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Post by runstill on Mar 20, 2020 0:42:48 GMT -5
I don't know, but I'm beginning to suspect that this is the opening act in the greatest PsyOps ever perpetrated upon an unsuspecting world. We'll see soon enough. I see a lot of evidence of this, like you said we'll know soon enough. On a more positive note a 70 year old treatment for Malaria is kicking some kungflu ass. see link linkOh fudge I can't get the link to work, just google [ chloroquine: 70 year old malaria treatment for corona virus Seeing numerous reports Chloroquine is being hyper fast tracked to get out to the general population. Probably days. Something I'm marking now, the medical abbreviation for Chloroquine is(CQ). May explain later. |
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Post by laughter on Mar 20, 2020 6:20:57 GMT -5
Well, the number of beds/admissions is what it is, and it's impractical to maintain a pandemic capacity indefinitely. So I'm not denying it's not an issue. Clearly, it's a crisis. On the other hand, it's having it both ways to calculate percentages on ratio's of reported cases / negative outcomes, on one hand, and then to say that there are 10x-50x the number of reported cases, on the other. That's distorting the numbers. So how'd you get your 8% critical number, smarty pants? 😁 But you're right Ratios and percentages are not accurate at this time. Except I think in SK we've got our best data. Now Germany has a .0027 mortality rate, but I suspect that number will change as the disease progresses. It's early on there. Sure, so the unknown in that number are the unreported cases where someone gets really really sick but doesn't get any medical attention. My intuition suggests that there's likely less of a statistical distortion in that instance.  .. and it's no wonder that the intellect can only ever obscure the existential truth.  |
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.. and it's no wonder that the intellect can only ever obscure the existential truth. 